The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute represents one of Southeast Asia's most enduring territorial conflicts, rooted in colonial-era ambiguities and exacerbated by domestic political tensions. The 2025 escalation marks the most serious confrontation in over a decade, with significant ramifications extending beyond the bilateral relationship to affect regional stability and India's strategic interests in Southeast Asia.
Historical Background and Past Relations
Colonial Origins and Initial Demarcation
The origins of the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute trace back to a map produced in 1907 during the French colonial era, which Cambodia used to claim specific border regions. However, the ambiguity inherent in this colonial cartography created fundamentally divergent interpretations between the two nations. This foundational disagreement persisted even as both countries moved toward independence and established formal diplomatic relations.
The Preah Vihear Temple Dispute
The most prominent manifestation of the border disagreement centres on the ancient Hindu temple of Preah Vihear and the surrounding territory. Following Cambodia's independence on November 9, 1953, Thailand occupied the Temple in 1954. Cambodia subsequently petitioned the International Court of Justice on October 6, 1959, seeking resolution of the territorial dispute.
Key ICJ Rulings:
On June 15, 1962, the ICJ ruled by a 9-to-3 vote that the temple belonged to Cambodia and that Thailand was obliged to withdraw all troops stationed there
By a 7-to-5 vote, the Court mandated that Thailand return antiquities such as sculptures that had been removed from the temple
The ICJ maintained that it lacked jurisdiction to determine a boundary line on disputed land in the temple's vicinity, effectively allowing both sides to claim partial victory
The ICJ reaffirmed its 1962 decision in 2013 by interpreting that Cambodia held sovereignty over the entire territory of the promontory of Preah Vihear
This ambiguity would fuel decades of contention between the two nations.
Post-Cold War Engagement and Khmer Rouge Legacy
Following the Cambodian civil conflict and the fall of the Khmer Rouge regime, bilateral relations underwent a significant transformation. Thailand, having hosted Cambodian refugees but also provided indirect support to the Khmer Rouge, gradually pivoted toward normalised relations. By the late 1990s, restored diplomatic relations ushered in aid, cross-border trade, and direct investments from Thailand into Cambodia.
Prime Minister Hun Sen's Win-Win strategy, initiated in late 1996, leveraged internal divisions within rival Khmer Rouge factions to facilitate their reintegration into the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces.
Contemporary Relations and Earlier Clashes
Relations between the nations remained complicated despite economic integration.
Economic Development:
Thailand became Cambodia's largest investor by 2005
Bilateral trade reached USD 17.5 billion in 2024, an 8.8% increase from the previous year
However, tensions periodically resurfaced
Diplomatic Incidents:
A mob attack on the Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh in 2003 prompted Thailand to downgrade relations
Tensions intensified in December 2008 when Abhisit Vejjajiva became Thailand's Prime Minister following a constitutional removal of Somchai Wongsawat
Military Clashes (2008-2011):
Military confrontations erupted between 2008 and 2011
Results included deaths, civilian displacement, and damage to the Preah Vihear temple complex
These confrontations reflected deeper political divisions within Thailand
Political Complexity:
Thai nationalists had long harboured irredentist aspirations to reclaim the temple
They strategically deployed concerns about territorial loss during mass protests
Hun Sen appointed the exiled Thaksin as an economic advisor in November 2009—an appointment Thailand vehemently opposed
Milestone Achievement:
Marking the 65th anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2015, Hun Sen paid an official visit to Bangkok
This was hailed as a significant milestone in enhancing previously frayed diplomatic relations
Present Conflict – The 2025 Escalation
Initial Trigger and May 2025 Skirmish
The current conflict escalation began with a skirmish on May 28, 2025, near the Temple of Preah Vihear that left a Cambodian soldier dead. The incident immediately triggered reciprocal measures.
Immediate Actions:
Cambodia banned Thai goods, including food and fuel
Thailand closed border crossings and restricted internet and power links to Cambodia
Both sides blamed each other for initiating the violence, establishing competing narratives
June Escalation and Diplomatic Breakdown
By June, the situation deteriorated markedly.
Failed Negotiations:
Bilateral talks held on June 5 to de-escalate proved unsuccessful
Thailand claimed Cambodia had rejected its proposals
Cambodia responded on June 17 by banning imports of Thai fruits and soap operas
Trade and Security Restrictions:
Thailand closed four border checkpoints and two temples
Thailand placed its forces at combat readiness
Domestic Political Crisis:
Leaked recordings of a phone call between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen surfaced
Paetongtarn adopted a deferential tone toward Hun Sen while criticising Thailand's military leadership
This revelation created domestic political uproar in Thailand
Nationalist critics accused Paetongtarn of betraying her country
Strategic Shift:
Facing mounting political pressure, Paetongtarn shifted strategy and mounted offensive campaigns against Cambodia
Paetongtarn prominently highlighted Cambodia's role as an alleged centre for cyber-scam operations and money laundering
On June 21, she declared combating Cambodian transnational crime a "national priority"
ICJ Intervention:
Cambodia escalated its position by submitting a case to the International Court of Justice on June 17
Cambodia sought a ruling on disputed territory in four areas along the frontier
Thailand rejected the ICJ's jurisdiction
Thailand insisted that territorial disputes be resolved bilaterally through the Joint Boundary Commission
July 2025: Major Military Escalation
The situation escalated dramatically on July 23, 2025.
Military Incidents:
Thailand claimed that five of its soldiers were injured by a mine explosion on the Cambodian side
Thailand responded by recalling its ambassador from Phnom Penh
Thailand expelled Cambodia's envoy from Bangkok on July 23
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Full-Scale Confrontation (July 24, 2025):
Fierce confrontations erupted across multiple locations along the 508-mile (817-kilometer) shared border
The escalation involved small arms, artillery, and rockets
Thailand requested air support
At 10:58 a.m. on July 24, six Royal Thai Air Force F-16s bombed Cambodian positions in Chong An Ma, Ubon Ratchathani province
Thailand confirmed that Cambodia's 8th Infantry Division and 9th Infantry Division command posts were destroyed
Casualties and Displacement:
A minimum of 11 fatalities occurred, predominantly civilians, though exact casualty figures remained disputed
Thailand reported 11 deaths, consisting of 10 civilians and one soldier
28 others sustained injuries
The Royal Thai Embassy requested all Thai citizens residing in Cambodia to leave
Border Closures:
Thailand announced the closure of all land border crossings
Cambodian Response:
Prime Minister Hun Manet asserted that Cambodia had "no choice but to fight back against Thailand"
Cambodia accused the Thai military of planning to close the entrance to the Ta Muen Thom Temple
Cambodia announced the evacuation of 5,000 citizens from conflict areas
Blame Game:
Cambodia claimed Thailand had deployed a drone before initiating gunfire
Thailand insisted that Cambodian forces opened fire first
Ceasefire Attempts and December Renewed Violence
A ceasefire was eventually agreed upon on July 28, 2025, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, under ASEAN mediation. However, this truce proved fragile.
Recent Developments:
Fighting resumed in November and December 2025, marking continued instability
On December 8, 2025, Bangkok launched attacks on Cambodian military positions along the border
These attacks violated a ceasefire that both countries had signed on October 26, 2025, at the ASEAN headquarters
This fresh escalation highlighted the persistent inability of both nations to definitively resolve their territorial disagreements through established mechanisms
Impact on India – Strategic Implications
Regional Stability and ASEAN Centrality
India's strategic interests in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict are multifaceted and deeply embedded in its broader Indo-Pacific vision. As a comprehensive strategic partner with Thailand and having elevated its partnership with ASEAN to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, India has substantial stakes in maintaining regional peace and stability.
Key Concerns:
The Thailand-Cambodia conflict directly threatens ASEAN cohesion
ASEAN centrality is a principle India actively supports as essential to its Act East Policy
India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has articulated that "We support ASEAN unity, centrality, and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific"
The persistent conflict between two ASEAN members undermines the Association's effectiveness as a regional institution
It limits ASEAN's ability to present a unified voice on critical issues affecting Southeast Asia
Economic and Connectivity Implications
The conflict poses tangible risks to India's economic interests in the region.
Trade and Investment:
Any escalation could disrupt regional and global supply chains
Border closures and military tensions create obstacles to infrastructure development and economic integration
Thailand remains India's 11th largest trading partner
Bilateral trade reached USD 17.5 billion in 2024
The conflict's disruption of cross-border commerce damages investment prospects
Regional Gateway:
Thailand serves as a critical gateway for India's broader engagement with Southeast Asia and East Asia
Internal Thai stability is essential to India's regional strategy
India has invested substantially in connectivity initiatives linking South and Southeast Asia
Geopolitical Competition and the China Factor
A crucial dimension of India's concern relates to China's expanding influence in the region.
China's Strategic Position:
China has substantial economic and strategic stakes in both Thailand and Cambodia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
China operates the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation framework
Cambodia has become heavily reliant on Chinese infrastructure investment
The Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone makes Cambodia increasingly aligned with Beijing's strategic interests
Shifting Regional Balance:
China has successfully brokered ceasefire agreements through Shanghai mediation
Beijing has positioned itself as a guarantor of regional stability
China has become a cooperative actor with ASEAN
For India, which seeks to position itself as a responsible regional power offering ASEAN a "third way" between great-power blocs, China's mediation role represents direct competition for regional influence
Broader Indo-Pacific Implications:
The conflict distracts from and potentially exacerbates other challenges in the Indo-Pacific
Other challenges include the management of the South China Sea and maritime security cooperation
India has invested significantly in maritime security initiatives, including the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) launched at the 2019 East Asia Summit
Regional instability reduces the efficacy of such cooperative mechanisms
Implications for Regional Institutions and Norms
The failure of ASEAN mechanisms to definitively resolve the conflict raises broader concerns.
Institutional Weakness:
ASEAN's traditional principle of non-interference in internal affairs has limited its ability to mediate bilateral disputes
Indonesia discovered this limitation when attempting to play a mediating role in 2008
Malaysia, ASEAN's current chair, has shown limited interest in formal mediation
Consequences for India's Vision:
If ASEAN cannot effectively manage disputes between its own members through multilateral mechanisms, the credibility of regional frameworks supporting India's Act East Policy is undermined
The implication is that great powers, particularly China, may increasingly step into mediatory roles
This expands China's regional influence at the expense of India's strategic position
Immigration and Humanitarian Concerns
The conflict also creates humanitarian concerns directly affecting India.
Humanitarian Impact:
Border violence has displaced over 270,000 people in the region
This creates humanitarian emergencies that regional institutions must address
India, as a stakeholder in regional stability, possesses significant diaspora communities in Southeast Asia
Travel and Safety:
India has issued travel advisories for its citizens heading to areas near the Thailand-Cambodia border
Such advisories signal broader concerns about regional instability
Strategic Partnership Advancement
Despite the conflict's challenges, India has simultaneously moved to deepen its strategic partnership with Thailand.
Recent Diplomatic Engagement:
Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow visited India from November 30 to December 1, 2025
The visit aimed to advance the newly elevated Thailand-India strategic partnership
Both countries emphasised expanding cooperation in several areas:
Political dialogue
Bilateral and multilateral trade
Connectivity initiatives
Security cooperation
Security Focus:
Discussions between the Thai Foreign Minister and India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval focused on strengthening maritime security
Both sides addressed transnational organised crime threats
Future Opportunities:
Thailand has expressed interest in joining BRICS under India's 2026 Chairmanship
Strategic partnership expansion may provide opportunities for India to deepen its engagement with Thailand during periods of relative stability
Regional Implications and India's Path Forward
Summary of the Conflict
The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict represents far more than a bilateral territorial dispute. Rooted in colonial-era cartographic ambiguities and perpetuated by nationalist political currents in both nations, the 2025 escalation reflects underlying structural tensions that neither side's political institutions have effectively resolved. The failure of both bilateral mechanisms and ASEAN's multilateral processes to secure lasting peace demonstrates the limits of existing institutional frameworks.
India's Strategic Challenges
For India, the conflict presents multifaceted strategic challenges:
ASEAN Unity: It threatens ASEAN unity and the effectiveness of regional institutions central to India's Indo-Pacific vision
Economic Integration: It disrupts economic integration and connectivity projects essential to India's South Asian engagement with Southeast Asia
Geopolitical Competition: It creates space for China to expand its mediatory influence and deepen strategic partnerships with both Thailand and Cambodia
Regional Balance: It potentially shifts the regional balance away from India's preferences for a multipolar Indo-Pacific
India's Strategic Response
India's response must balance multiple objectives:
Strategic Engagement: Deepen strategic partnership with Thailand through expanded cooperation in trade, security, and connectivity
ASEAN Support: Support ASEAN's centrality and institutional strengthening to enhance the Association's capacity for conflict resolution
Rules-Based Order: Actively participate in regional mechanisms promoting rules-based order and peaceful settlement of disputes
Indo-Pacific Vision: Advance the broader vision of a stable, prosperous, and multipolar Indo-Pacific where regional voices retain agency and institutional mechanisms effectively resolve disputes
The Broader Stakes
The stakes for India extend beyond economics or diplomacy—they encompass its broader vision of a stable, prosperous, and multipolar Indo-Pacific. The success or failure of regional institutions in managing the Thailand-Cambodia conflict will have significant implications for India's strategic position in Southeast Asia for years to come.
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