A Region at the Crossroads: How Afghanistan–Pakistan Conflict Shapes Asia’s Stability and India’s Strategic Future

A Region Caught Between War and Geopolitics

South Asia sits at one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical intersections, where history, tribal loyalties, terrorism, foreign interventions, and national ambitions meet. At the centre of this vortex stand two countries whose relationship has shaped the region’s security for more than seven decades—Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their shared border, contested histories, and competing political visions have fueled wars, insurgencies, and proxy conflicts that continue to influence global security.

By Pixel

In recent years, especially after the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, tensions have intensified. Border clashes along the Durand Line, Pakistan’s internal security crises, the resurgence of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Afghanistan’s refusal to accept Pakistan’s territorial claims have pushed both nations toward open confrontation.

For India, a major regional power with strategic depth extending into Central Asia, the evolving Afghanistan-Pakistan dynamic is not a distant concern. It carries implications for national security, regional trade, connectivity corridors, terrorism, and diplomatic leverage in South Asia.

Understanding this conflict is therefore essential—not only to assess its impact on India’s future plans, but also to grasp its role in the shifting power balance of Asia and the wider world.

Shared History: From the Durand Line to Divergent National Identities

Although modern borders split them into separate nations, Afghanistan and Pakistan are united by centuries of shared tribal, ethnic, and cultural ties. The Pashtun belt, stretching across the region, has long served as a bridge between the two populations.

The Durand Line and its Shadows

The turning point came in 1893, when Sir Mortimer Durand of British India drew a boundary—the Durand Line—dividing Pashtun tribal areas. It sliced communities, clans, and cultural zones into two halves. Afghanistan never fully accepted it, and after Pakistan’s creation in 1947, this unresolved issue became the backbone of distrust.

Opposition from the Start

Afghanistan was the only country that opposed Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations. The reason? Kabul contested the validity of the Durand Line and supported the idea of Pashtunistan, a separate homeland for Pashtuns.

This early antagonism planted the seeds for decades of rivalry.

Pashtunistan and Strategic Competition

Pakistan feared that supporting Pashtun self-determination would undermine its territorial integrity. Afghanistan feared Pakistan’s growing military strength and later its alliance with the US.

From the 1950s onward, both nations funded, trained, and supported groups on each other’s side of the border—an early phase of proxy warfare that laid the foundation for what would come later.

Afghanistan–Pakistan Conflict: A Timeline of War and Proxy War

Pakistan’s “Strategic Depth” Doctrine

During the Cold War, Pakistan’s military establishment developed the infamous concept of strategic depth—the belief that controlling or influencing Afghanistan would protect Pakistan in case of war with India.

To achieve this, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI):

Supported Mujahideen fighters against the Soviet invasion (1979–1989)
Encouraged the rise of the Taliban in the early 1990s
Tried to install a friendly regime in Kabul

This created long-lasting blowback.

The U.S. War on Terror and Pakistan’s Two-Track Policy

After 9/11, Pakistan became a crucial U.S. ally. But its cooperation was never consistent. While accepting American aid, Pakistan allegedly continued to shelter Taliban leaders.

Afghanistan publicly accused Pakistan of:

Hosting Taliban leadership in Quetta and Peshawar
Allowing cross-border attacks
Providing safe havens for Haqqani Network operatives

This two-faced policy deepened animosity.

Taliban Takeover in 2021: A New Era of Tensions

Pakistan initially celebrated the Taliban’s return. But within months, tensions erupted over:

Durand Line fencing
Taliban refusing to act decisively against TTP
Refugee pushbacks and border closures
Economic pressure on both sides

In 2023–2024, violent clashes escalated, and airstrikes were exchanged across the border. The so-called "brotherly relationship" had turned into open hostility.

Proxy Wars: The Invisible Battlefield

Afghanistan–Pakistan rivalry is not limited to direct conflict; it’s deeply embedded in proxy warfare.

Key Proxy Dimensions

Pakistan-backed Taliban factions vs Taliban factions hostile to Pakistan
TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) using Afghan territory
Anti-Pakistan Baloch groups with influence across borders
India–Pakistan rivalry replaying indirectly in Afghan terrain
Regional powers—Iran, China, Russia, and Gulf countries—supporting their own interests

Every major power has used Afghan soil for covert objectives at some point.

India’s Soft-Power Approach and Pakistan’s Paranoia

India historically avoided arming Afghan groups. Instead, it invested in:

Highways
Parliament building
Education
Infrastructure
Humanitarian aid

Pakistan perceived this as India’s attempt to encircle it, increasing its dependence on Taliban groups for influence.

Current Ties: Cooperation, Distrust, and Volatile Politics

Afghanistan’s Stance toward Pakistan

The Taliban government repeatedly asserts:

Durand Line is not recognised
Pakistan must stop airstrikes
TTP is “Pakistan’s internal issue”
Refugees should not be deported forcefully

Afghanistan sees Pakistan’s tactics as bullying, while Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of enabling terrorism.

Pakistan’s Afghan Policy in Crisis

Pakistan faces severe internal turmoil:

Political instability
Economic crisis
Rising TTP attacks
Military overstretch
International isolation

Islamabad blames Kabul for TTP’s resurgence, leading to aggressive cross-border actions.

Afghanistan’s Ties with India

Despite the Taliban regime, India maintains:

Diplomatic presence via a technical mission
Humanitarian outreach (food, medicines)
Occasional political engagement

Afghanistan sees India as trustworthy, given India’s history of development assistance rather than military interference.

India’s Stakes: Strategic Benefits and Policy Vision

India stands at a critical crossroads. The Afghan–Pakistani conflict could either hurt India’s interests or create strategic openings.

Security Benefits: A Weakening Pakistan?

Pakistan’s distraction with Afghanistan weakens:

Its military focus on India
Its proxy capabilities
Its diplomatic bandwidth

If Pakistan is drawn into a prolonged border conflict, India benefits strategically by avoiding a two-front security threat.

A destabilised Pakistan, however, also risks unpredictable consequences—terror spillovers and nuclear instability.

Diplomatic Benefits: India’s Image as a Stabiliser

India can leverage:

Development aid
Humanitarian support
Non-interference policy
Educational exchanges

to become a trusted partner for the Afghan people—without overtly recognising the Taliban regime.

This enhances India’s soft power in the region.

Economic Benefits: Access to Central Asia

A stable Afghanistan would open energy and trade routes:

Chabahar Port → Afghanistan → Central Asia
International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC)
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline (currently stalled)

If Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions persist, India must strengthen:

Chabahar
Iran partnership
Central Asian ties
Russia-backed transit routes

Regional and Global Impact: Why This Conflict Matters

Impact on Asia

China’s Dilemma

China’s projects—CPEC and Belt & Road—face risks:

Attacks on Chinese workers in Pakistan
Volatile Afghan regions threatening China’s border security

A prolonged conflict weakens China’s western expansion ambitions.

Iran–Pakistan–Afghanistan Triangle

Iran’s tensions with Pakistan over Baluchistan and its historical ties with Afghanistan complicate the regional security equation.

Central Asia’s Fear

Instability threatens:

Trade corridors
Energy pipelines
Border security
Radicalization

Central Asia cannot afford another wave of extremism.

Impact on the Wider World

Global Terrorism

A weak Afghan state and a divided Pakistan increase the risk of:

ISIS-K expansion
Transnational terror networks migrating to the region

Refugee Crisis

Millions could move toward:

Iran
Central Asia
Europe

Major Power Competition

The U.S., Russia, China, and Gulf nations will continue shaping the region through aid, weapons, intelligence, or diplomacy.

Future Outlook: Stability, Chaos, or Realignment?

The next decade of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations may unfold in several ways:

Scenario 1: Prolonged Low-Intensity Conflict

Border skirmishes, terror attacks, and airstrikes continue but do not escalate into full-scale war.
This is the most likely scenario.

Scenario 2: Pakistan-Taliban Diplomatic Breakdown

Formal recognition is withdrawn; borders close; refugees expelled; regional powers take sides.

Scenario 3: China Steps In

Beijing attempts to broker peace to protect CPEC and mineral investments.

Scenario 4: U.S. Re-engagement

Washington increases intelligence links with Afghan factions to counter ISIS-K.

Scenario 5: Regional Re-alignment

Iran, Russia, and Central Asian states build a new coalition to stabilise Afghanistan, with India supporting economically.

India’s Perspective: A Pragmatic Way Forward

India must navigate this conflict carefully, striking a balance between its strategic ambitions and regional stability.

1. Security Strategy

Strengthen counterterrorism cooperation
Enhance border security
Track movements of Afghan-origin extremist networks
Maintain intelligence links in Afghanistan

2. Development and Diplomacy

India should continue supporting:

Education
Healthcare
Food security
Infrastructure assistance where possible

This approach wins hearts without entangling India in political factions.

3. Regional Partnerships

India needs deeper ties with:

Iran (for Chabahar)
Central Asian republics
Russia (for transport corridors)
Gulf nations (for investment leverage)

4. Avoiding Direct Military Involvement

India must not get drawn into proxy wars. Soft power and economic engagement remain the most sustainable tools.

5. Long-Term Vision

India should aim to:

Build influence among the Afghan people
Limit Pakistan-backed extremist ecosystems
Strengthen continental trade access
Support a stable, independent Afghan state that isn’t a terror safe haven

A Conflict That Shapes the Region’s Future

The Afghanistan–Pakistan relationship remains one of the most complex geopolitical puzzles in the world. Rooted in history, aggravated by terrorism, shaped by global powers, and fuelled by contested borders, it continues to produce instability with global consequences.

For India, this conflict offers both challenges and opportunities. A destabilised Pakistan reduces immediate threats but increases long-term regional volatility. A hostile Afghanistan weakens India’s access to Central Asia, but an Afghanistan independent of Pakistan’s influence opens strategic doors.

Asia’s future—particularly South and Central Asia—will be shaped heavily by what happens along the Durand Line. The world, too, will feel the impact in terms of security, migration, and economic realignment.

In this shifting landscape, India’s best path is one of pragmatic engagement, strategic patience, and development-driven diplomacy. The region is changing, but India has the capacity to shape that change through long-term vision, stability-focused policies, and genuine partnership with the Afghan people.

Vivpost